Below, the S&P 500 chart...I should have listed the DJI but we've following this one so I'll stay with this for a little bit longer. This is/has been sitting on a longer term support with stochastics looking to turn to the upside...This, along with the rest of the markets, kind of consolidated for about 4 days...It has to pick a direction soon.
The EUR/JPY (pictured below) is a currency pair that follows the US Markets. If the US Markets go up, then this goes up...and vice-versa. That being said, from a technical perspective, the "hammer's" that have been forming for the last 3-4 trading sessions is an indication that a reversal could be in order...so if the EUR/JPY goes up; then we could anticipate that the US Markets will too (The EUR/JPY follows the $DJI better than the $SPX)...
Lastly, we have TLT (pictured below). Which is basically Bonds. And as you can see the bond market has been on fire! But, from another technical perspective, the "head and shoulder's" pattern formed up and the trading broke the 'neck-line' (the black line you see). As a general rule of thumb, if the neckline is broke then the movement of that security should fall the same amount as it rose from neckline (black-line) to the top of the head (122'ish). Assuming that is true, we could GUESS that TLT could move to 100'ish.
The thing about TLT and the bonds is that...Apparently, money is coming out of those 'avenue's' or means of investing. Usually, when stock markets get really crappy, institutions will put there money into Bonds (hence why TLT has had such a great run). Conversely, with TLT coming down and the prospect of it going down further, Money is flowing out of bonds and more than likely back into stocks...That being said, stocks haven't really moved all that much which is why I'm expecting a move higher from where we now sit...
But again, just an opinion and I'm often dead wrong.
No comments:
Post a Comment