Monday, September 29, 2008

Smack DOWN!!!

Need I say more? The S&P 500 got smacked (-106) and the DOW lost 777 points....from a technical perspective, it could get a lot worse. However, I don't know that this market is trading on technicals....more like...CRACK! But in all seriousness, just look at these charts.

Up above, we've got the DOW with a 20 year time horizon. Clearly, we're moving down, but from a technical perspective, if we don't bounce on that smaller green circle at the 10,000'ish level, then we'll be in a world of hurt. I say this because the next support level is not until about 7,600'ish! I would be that for the short term we'll get a bounce off of the 10,000 level. I would go on to bet that the large institutions will not put as much capital at work to allow the retail trader to bring the markets up and then they'll just short into it.

Above is the S&P 500. Again, we're looking at a 20 year - Monthly chart. Same thing, if we don't get a relief bounce from the upward support line at about 1000'ish we could easily see 800 on the S&P because that's where the next level of support is.

Again, I think we'll get a bounce at the levels where the first/smaller green circles are on my charts. Below, the VIX (volatility index - it's a measurement of fear) it's all the way up to 46!!! When you look at the VIX in the past where we had big drops in the market (just look at the charts above to do that). You'll see that's about where we bottomed out. For example look at the VIX, DOW, and S&P charts back in the 2002-2003 timeframe...the VIX was in the 50's and you'll see that's about the time we turned around.

Just my thoughts and personal opinion of what I'm seeing in the market.
(and never forget that CASH is a position too).

Thursday, September 4, 2008

UPDATE: All Currency Positions

Ok - So I thought I would update you on the 3 currency pair positions that I have on and when I got in and what I thought it would do at the time of entry. I'm looking to exit two of them and 1 is testing my patience.

USD/CAD: I was looking for a pull back off of resistance and it did that the day after my entry but today's action moved up just over my entry. I'm trying to be patient.

USD/JPY: I shorted this pair and it's pulled back a good bit today. I'll be looking to exit this one.

EUR/CHF: This is the first currency pair I shorted that we've been following. Obviously my favorite because it has made it's move that I was looking for. 1.58 (the dashed horizontal line) is a LONG, Long, long term a monthly support line. I've tightened my stops and I'm looking to exit with good profit.

Wednesday, September 3, 2008

So Far, So Good

It's only been one day, but so far so good. It's dropped as I was looking for it to. I've thought about adding to the position but I don't want to blow up my account if it makes a sharp turn around. A daily chart is below and I got in on the day the "shooting star" candle formed.

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

USD/CAD Short?

Another Short possibility? I'm looking at a Weekly chart of the USD/CAD currency pair. The daily chart looks pretty bearish as well...but I'm short this pair and would love for the trend to continue.

Monday, September 1, 2008

Another Update

Above is the daily chart and below is a weekly chart for the EUR/CHF (which again is the Euro - Franc currency pair)...I shorted it a couple of weeks ago expected a pull back and it's gone as planned. I'm still in it and I'll be using the weekly chart to look for an exit. I've made money but I'm looking for more.