Friday, May 30, 2008

Testing System

For those of you interested, a new type of trading system was brought to the meeting by Terry. Thanks TERRY!!

In any case, I thought it would be a good idea to track and post on this 'system' to see how many winners we get against losers. I'm going to paper trade this with a $100,000 account and we'll be able to follow the progress...I'm only go to trade the stock (no options) just for making it easier.

System Rules:
-Use the Market Forecast study in prophet charts.
-Use study set "Market Forecast" and simple moving averages (3 of them) with an 8/21/30 day period for each moving average.
-Trade in the direction of the trend only.
-Make every effort to enter trade just prior to close on the day the signal appears or right at the open of the the next trading day.
-Enter trade when red line is at or below 10 in "lower reversal zone".
-Exit when either red (momentum line), or the blue (near-term line) has touched or entered "upper reversal zone" (80 or higher).
-Be very cautious during reversals that have not clearly signaled; and/or the trend and MA's are flat; or there is no clear crossover of the moving averages, and intermediate line is below 50.
-During a flat time period with no bias, only trade Blue & Red cluster's in lower reversal zone and exit when either one of them have hit the upper reversal zone.

Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Wednesday, May 21, 2008

Hi, fly, die, spy

...and don't ask about the title; I'm tired and restless (having to create a new title with each post gets harder and harder; maybe I'll just resort to animal names)....Anyways, I took on a bearish position with the SPY (S&P 500 etf) yesterday....Hopefully, the downtrend move will continue.


So, I'm taking a shot here. I'm playing/entered into a bearish position on COP today. I really think there's going to be some profit taking in the next couple of days. And yes, I know this is strongly tied to oil; but it's a counter trend trade...

My target is the range between $88.80 and $90'ish; my stop is above today's swing high. Plan the trade and trade the plan.

Comment of the Day

This one comes from Mike Coval at

"Even a broken clock is right twice a day"

Oh so true...& I strongly recommend you check out his site and listen to what he has to say...

-Matt J
Sent via BlackBerry from AT&T

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Another Day

While I'm sitting in my car, traveling the roads, I come to an obvious realization that the stimulus checks aren't going to "stimulate" this economy...

Very elementary when you think about it; but people aren't going to spend their money on 'stuff' when they get their check...they're gonna spend it on gas and food because its getting so dang expensive...$15 gallon of gas/$20 gallon of might laugh but at the rate we're going it won't take long...and it'll only get worse unless we find a top....

But I wonder, a 'pop' in one bubble should create a new bubble..........right?

That's all.

-Matt J
Sent via BlackBerry from AT&T

Not McDonald's but I still love it

Here's one that was brought to my attention (Thanks Dave); this one had a low risk entry with the hammer (or two) that formed a few days ago. That's when I got in on 2 mini contracts (to the long side) and I'm still in it....

Sunday, May 18, 2008

My Apologies

Sorry for not posting in a while...Things have been too busy for me to post what's going on and I apologize for that.

I hope you continue to check back...I'll post something tonight.


-Matt J

Sunday, May 4, 2008

Meeting Review

Here is the dealio....I have got to get my emotions in check...I've made plays on a lot of things and they have actually turned out to be correct plays...GREAT plays...short this here or go long here......but I let my emotions get involved and I hang on for too long or I don't move my stop....or some other crap...and I get hammered...

I don't like that one bit! And as much as I would love to go to credit spreads; the VIX isn't paying anything out. I hate sitting on hands for long periods of time but I have to make myself do it. I might be moving to paper again, or I might just be sitting and observing for the week. I don't know; I'm going to sleep on it and decide in the morning.

I hope that you are having better trading days than I am and have a great week!

-Matt J

Thursday, May 1, 2008

The Meeting

Here are the notes from the meeting tonight:

XME: Hammer candle formed today and could be poised to make a possible pop from here

CAT: Has been chopping around support of 81.20 - 81.50'ish and you might be able to call it a bull flag pattern that's forming(ed). Good longer term play too.

DE: Almost a hammer but more of a Dragonfly Doji: "A Doji where the open and close price are at the high of the day. Like other Doji days, this one normally appears at market turning points"

CF: This is an Agricultural play that has formed a doji and is resting on broken resistence which is acting like support. But no one seems to know what's going on with the Ag's so be careful...

POT: is on crack

BA: Could be rolling over here; right up against resistence so if you played it to the down side and we're wrong, your risk is very small. MACD rolling over as well...

ETN: Thinking about doing a 95/100 bear call spread as a hedge for the 2nd offering of stock that they're coming out with (which is priced at 84.00 (I THINK! CAN'T REMEMBER SO MAKE SURE YOU FIND OUT)).

GLW: This is a longer term play from the basis of this...and bare with me...With TV's having to go from analog to digital, fiber has to be supplied to handle the bandwith. So from a supply side, Corning appears to be the one grabbing all of these contracts. $27.04 is it's 52-week closing price it closed at $27.03.

That's about all.....OH! There's some economic data being released tomorrow morning so keep an eye for that. It could swing us the other way but at this point who knows.

Happy Trading!!!

-Matt J