Tuesday, December 16, 2008


Sorry for not posting in so long. My job has gotten a little extra busy because everything has slowed down and I needed to focus 120% of my time to work and potential work that would help us out...

Now that that's out of the way....There's a bubble in the market (Thanks to E for pointing it out)...Bonds. Just look at TLT (which is a way to trade the bonds)....it's going straight up. And when the markets decide to get a good bounce going.....this thing is going to tank!!!

I will try to post more from here on out. I know that starting Jan. 1, 2009; I'll be able to provide more TLC to this blog.

-Matt J

Friday, October 17, 2008


Alright, so as I'm sitting here in my car waiting for a meeting to get started...I take a look at the markets just to get a snapshot of the day...we're down (go figure)....but I notice GLD, SLV, and TLT is down. Now I barely heard CNBC talking about gold this morning and how it's been down in this collapse...which really didn't register. But as I sit here waiting...it hits me what they were saying on TV!

I went back and looked at a chart of gold & silver and their charts are trending down! This shouldn't be right and it just goes to show how F'd up this market is!!! Gold is supposed to be a 'flight to safety' or a 'safe haven' in times of economic trouble....but there's no safety here either!!! Where the heck is all of the money being put to work at?!?

This market is not behaving like it has in the past and it's defining new rules.

Time for my meeting...

-Matt J
Sent from iPhone

Monday, October 13, 2008


Wow...what a day. As stated before I was expecting (as was a lot of people I'm sure) or "looking for an 800 to 1000 point gain, in a single day". That day came today and we had pretty good volume to support the move. See below.
The Dow was up 936!!! (See below)

The S&P 500 was up 104! (See below)

Is this the absolute bottom? Who knows, and time will tell. But for now, I'm playing and have been positioned for a reversal to the upside since Thursday (10/9/08).....And if you haven't noticed, we passed Friday and Thursday's levels today in 1 swing.

-Matt J

Quick SnapShot of the Day

As of this writing, we're looking pretty good in terms of gains for the day. We're just over half way through the trading day and it'll be interesting to see if we continue at this rate....I would add a screen shot of the tickers that I'm looking at but I can't add them for some reason (my apologies).

I'll post again later to summarize what happened.

-Matt J

Friday, October 10, 2008


So...just like I said previously, "We're crashing".....that's still holding true.

Now the next question becomes....'When do we bottom'?

And to be honest I have absolutely no idea or even how to guess. I want to say that somewhere around 800 is where we'll bottom because that is an extremely hard support level. But this is not a fundamental or technical market anymore; they've both been thrown out the window. This market is trading on psychology and sentiment...and right now absolutely everyone is in a "doom and gloom" mood. Even the sports radio show I was listening to today.

But i will say this; the day we turn around; we'll probably see an +800 or maybe even +1000 one-day gain in the market. I think there's so much money on the sidelines just waiting for an entry it's not even funny. So when one money pool sees another go in; and another sees those two; etc. it'll just BOOM! (although, 'SHOULD' is no gaurantee).

Just hang in there; I really think we're close. And if anything be happy that oil is down to 77.50!!!

Have a great weekend!!

-Matt J

Monday, September 29, 2008

Smack DOWN!!!

Need I say more? The S&P 500 got smacked (-106) and the DOW lost 777 points....from a technical perspective, it could get a lot worse. However, I don't know that this market is trading on technicals....more like...CRACK! But in all seriousness, just look at these charts.

Up above, we've got the DOW with a 20 year time horizon. Clearly, we're moving down, but from a technical perspective, if we don't bounce on that smaller green circle at the 10,000'ish level, then we'll be in a world of hurt. I say this because the next support level is not until about 7,600'ish! I would be that for the short term we'll get a bounce off of the 10,000 level. I would go on to bet that the large institutions will not put as much capital at work to allow the retail trader to bring the markets up and then they'll just short into it.

Above is the S&P 500. Again, we're looking at a 20 year - Monthly chart. Same thing, if we don't get a relief bounce from the upward support line at about 1000'ish we could easily see 800 on the S&P because that's where the next level of support is.

Again, I think we'll get a bounce at the levels where the first/smaller green circles are on my charts. Below, the VIX (volatility index - it's a measurement of fear) it's all the way up to 46!!! When you look at the VIX in the past where we had big drops in the market (just look at the charts above to do that). You'll see that's about where we bottomed out. For example look at the VIX, DOW, and S&P charts back in the 2002-2003 timeframe...the VIX was in the 50's and you'll see that's about the time we turned around.

Just my thoughts and personal opinion of what I'm seeing in the market.
(and never forget that CASH is a position too).

Thursday, September 4, 2008

UPDATE: All Currency Positions

Ok - So I thought I would update you on the 3 currency pair positions that I have on and when I got in and what I thought it would do at the time of entry. I'm looking to exit two of them and 1 is testing my patience.

USD/CAD: I was looking for a pull back off of resistance and it did that the day after my entry but today's action moved up just over my entry. I'm trying to be patient.

USD/JPY: I shorted this pair and it's pulled back a good bit today. I'll be looking to exit this one.

EUR/CHF: This is the first currency pair I shorted that we've been following. Obviously my favorite because it has made it's move that I was looking for. 1.58 (the dashed horizontal line) is a LONG, Long, long term support...like a monthly support line. I've tightened my stops and I'm looking to exit with good profit.

Wednesday, September 3, 2008

So Far, So Good

It's only been one day, but so far so good. It's dropped as I was looking for it to. I've thought about adding to the position but I don't want to blow up my account if it makes a sharp turn around. A daily chart is below and I got in on the day the "shooting star" candle formed.

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

USD/CAD Short?

Another Short possibility? I'm looking at a Weekly chart of the USD/CAD currency pair. The daily chart looks pretty bearish as well...but I'm short this pair and would love for the trend to continue.

Monday, September 1, 2008

Another Update

Above is the daily chart and below is a weekly chart for the EUR/CHF (which again is the Euro - Franc currency pair)...I shorted it a couple of weeks ago expected a pull back and it's gone as planned. I'm still in it and I'll be using the weekly chart to look for an exit. I've made money but I'm looking for more.

Sunday, August 17, 2008

SPY Chart

Looking at the SPY or what's really the S&P 500, I'm looking for a pullback to be coming...

If you can see through all of the crap I have on my chart, I'll explain why I think that...For starters, since the near term bottom on 7/15 the volume has slowly been tailing off; that's a little bearish in my eyes. Also, using Fibonacci Fan's, the SPY is currently up against some resistance...(Almost done explaining)...The green lines I have drawn, represent a 'bear flag' or 'rising wedge' (which is also bearish)...

Just my opinion of the current condition of the SPY.

EUR/CHF Update...again

So here's another update. I'm still in my short position on this currency pair and I'm really liking the move it made Friday (it went down a good bit). I'm expecting a pull back or a bounce this week and I'm staring at a chart right now because I want to maximize my gains....I'm happy!

Sunday, August 10, 2008

EUR/CHF update

Here's an update on the short position that I'm still in. So far so good and moving in my favor. It took a while to move to the down side but I'll take it. I'm still in the short (1 mini contract). I'm using the Weekly, Daily, and 2 hour chart to look for an exit. Above is the daily chart and below is the weekly chart. The weekly looks more bearish

Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Update: EUR/CHF

Below is a chart of the same currency pair (EUR/CHF) that I've been waiting on. I posted about this in early July (previous post) and the time to short looks to be getting closer. Also, you'll notice that I added in a horizontal resistance line at 1.6340.

When looking at this chart and looking at an hourly chart; I'm expecting this currency pair to drop. The hourly chart is showing some divergence on the MACD (graph not shown) as it approaches the resistance...I shorted 1 mini contract here (cost basis: 1.6329) and will short another if it breaks in my direction.

Thursday, July 10, 2008

EUR/CHF Setup Coming?

Looking at the 2 charts below...I'm looking for a nice Risk/Reward entry to be coming up soon...

This is a weekly chart of the EUR/CHF. With my support & resistance line drawn...Most recently it came up and hit resistance before going lower; so the line is still intact...

Here is a daily chart of the EUR/CHF; Same line as above drawn here. But for now it's having trouble getting over it's 200 MA. I'd like to see it get past it's 200MA and go to the trend line I have drawn; I'd then short it...IF that happened.

And I'm still reviewing all of my stock trades for 2008. So far, I'm getting the impression that my exit strategy just sucks. I've been either too early or too late. But that's for the time being and the rest of trades I review could indicate that my entries suck; but that's what I'm finding for now...Just an update and I'll keep you posted.

Sunday, July 6, 2008


I'm going into full review mode. I've put a stop on all of my trading until I review and go through my past trades....This is a tall order but I've been getting my butt handed to me and I need to figure out what went/is going wrong with my system. I will repost when I have finished to share my findings.

My Goal: Review all of my 2008 trades

I will review each and every trade and ask myself the following questions. Was it a winner or loser? What went right/wrong? Could I have done something different to make it more profitable? If so, what?

This is a tall order but with me wanting to trade full time; I believe that this is a necessary step.

-Matt J

Thursday, June 26, 2008

A Post

Long time no see nor checked in....So I thought that I'd get back on track and make a nice little post for you or anyone (if anyone) out there:

I think everyone will agree that today was a bearish jump off the side of a cliff!!! I love days like this (if I'm positioned for it - which I wasn't because it's too hard for me to trade in this kind of environment as of recently).

When looking at the $SPX the momentum (Red line) on MFC study is at 0. So i got curious as to how many times the red line has actually hit 0 in the last 2 years...Well, it's only happened 2 other times besides today. Of those 2 days, the very next trading session resulted in one session at +15 points (7/30/07) and the second session resulted in -13 points (2/6/08)...So, to go a little further, I wondered how many times the Red line closed at 1 or below, and what did the SPX do the day after.

Here are the results:

SPX Rallies w/ momentum line @ or below 1.00
03/06/07: +19 Points (5 day rally)
03/14/07: +11 Points (2 day rally)
05/01/07: +4 points (5 day rally)
05/11/07: +14 points (1 day rally)
06/08/07: +17 points (2 day rally)
06/13/07: +23 Points (3 day rally)
07/11/07: +9 points (3 day rally)
07/30/07: +15 points **(Red line was @ zero day before)**
08/06/07: +34 points (3 day rally)
08/10/07: .55 cents (Flat; no rally)
08/14/07: -20 points (rallied close to 8 more days after that)
08/29/07: +31 points (1 day rally)
10/22/07: +10 points (2 day rally)
11/13/07: +40 points (1 day rally)
12/17/07: -20 points (rallied close to 6 days after that)
12/18/07: +9 points (same rally as above)
01/07/08: +2 points (1 day rally)
01/16/08: -4 points (fell 3 more days after that)
02/06/08: -13 points **(Red line was @ zero day before)**
03/11/08: +46 points (1 day rally)
03/27/08: -15 points
06/12/08: +4 points (3 day rally)
06/27/08: ?????????? **(Red line was @ zero day before)**
------------ --------- --------- --------- --------

The date represents the trading session after the Red line reaching 1 or below. The +/- of points is how many points on the $SPX that were either gained or lost in that 1 day. The 3rd column tells us how many days after the reading that the SPX rallied once the red line hit 1 or below...

In the past 2 years, the $SPX has rallied 17/22 sessions. Of those 17 trading days, it's averaged a positive gain of +17 points...

Just thought I'd share what I found.

-Matt J

Quote for the Year

"You can't find God in a bar"

-And I've been MIA for a while; but I'm looking to get back on track. I apologize for the delay and will be coming back in full force shortly.

Thanks for your patience and have a great day!

-Matt J

Sunday, June 8, 2008


Time to short this pair? Well, I'm taking a shot at it and we'll see how it goes. This is a weekly chart and I apologize if all of the lines bother you....but you'll be just fine.

Friday, June 6, 2008

USO Trade Result

With the opening gap, we were able to get out at even a better price...

Entry (5/30) @ 103.41
Exit (6/6) @ 108.23

Net Result: +$482.00

We're batting 1.000 after 1 trade.


Alright, the Market Forecast system has given us an exit signal; the momentum line hit 87. So now, based off of the rules, we're supposed to exit the position at the close of the '87' reading or at the opening the next day.

I have put in a market order to exit at the open.

Wednesday, June 4, 2008

By The Way

...We're long USO based off of the system described below & we have been since 5/29. Based off of the rules below, the trend is up, and the momentum line that day was at 2.29, so we went long. But "we've got to be able to handle the swings"....and we're in a swing lower. The trend is still up, and there's still room for the momentum/ line to reach 80.

We're currently down, $443.00 (paper money)...

Friday, May 30, 2008

Testing System

For those of you interested, a new type of trading system was brought to the meeting by Terry. Thanks TERRY!!

In any case, I thought it would be a good idea to track and post on this 'system' to see how many winners we get against losers. I'm going to paper trade this with a $100,000 account and we'll be able to follow the progress...I'm only go to trade the stock (no options) just for making it easier.

System Rules:
-Use the Market Forecast study in prophet charts.
-Use study set "Market Forecast" and simple moving averages (3 of them) with an 8/21/30 day period for each moving average.
-Trade in the direction of the trend only.
-Make every effort to enter trade just prior to close on the day the signal appears or right at the open of the the next trading day.
-Enter trade when red line is at or below 10 in "lower reversal zone".
-Exit when either red (momentum line), or the blue (near-term line) has touched or entered "upper reversal zone" (80 or higher).
-Be very cautious during reversals that have not clearly signaled; and/or the trend and MA's are flat; or there is no clear crossover of the moving averages, and intermediate line is below 50.
-During a flat time period with no bias, only trade Blue & Red cluster's in lower reversal zone and exit when either one of them have hit the upper reversal zone.

Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Wednesday, May 21, 2008

Hi, fly, die, spy

...and don't ask about the title; I'm tired and restless (having to create a new title with each post gets harder and harder; maybe I'll just resort to animal names)....Anyways, I took on a bearish position with the SPY (S&P 500 etf) yesterday....Hopefully, the downtrend move will continue.


So, I'm taking a shot here. I'm playing/entered into a bearish position on COP today. I really think there's going to be some profit taking in the next couple of days. And yes, I know this is strongly tied to oil; but it's a counter trend trade...

My target is the range between $88.80 and $90'ish; my stop is above today's swing high. Plan the trade and trade the plan.

Comment of the Day

This one comes from Mike Coval at incometraderblog.com...

"Even a broken clock is right twice a day"

Oh so true...& I strongly recommend you check out his site and listen to what he has to say...

-Matt J
Sent via BlackBerry from AT&T

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Another Day

While I'm sitting in my car, traveling the roads, I come to an obvious realization that the stimulus checks aren't going to "stimulate" this economy...

Very elementary when you think about it; but people aren't going to spend their money on 'stuff' when they get their check...they're gonna spend it on gas and food because its getting so dang expensive...$15 gallon of gas/$20 gallon of milk....you might laugh but at the rate we're going it won't take long...and it'll only get worse unless we find a top....

But I wonder, a 'pop' in one bubble should create a new bubble..........right?

That's all.

-Matt J
Sent via BlackBerry from AT&T

Not McDonald's but I still love it

Here's one that was brought to my attention (Thanks Dave); this one had a low risk entry with the hammer (or two) that formed a few days ago. That's when I got in on 2 mini contracts (to the long side) and I'm still in it....

Sunday, May 18, 2008

My Apologies

Sorry for not posting in a while...Things have been too busy for me to post what's going on and I apologize for that.

I hope you continue to check back...I'll post something tonight.


-Matt J

Sunday, May 4, 2008

Meeting Review

Here is the dealio....I have got to get my emotions in check...I've made plays on a lot of things and they have actually turned out to be correct plays...GREAT plays...short this here or go long here......but I let my emotions get involved and I hang on for too long or I don't move my stop....or some other crap...and I get hammered...

I don't like that one bit! And as much as I would love to go to credit spreads; the VIX isn't paying anything out. I hate sitting on hands for long periods of time but I have to make myself do it. I might be moving to paper again, or I might just be sitting and observing for the week. I don't know; I'm going to sleep on it and decide in the morning.

I hope that you are having better trading days than I am and have a great week!

-Matt J

Thursday, May 1, 2008

The Meeting

Here are the notes from the meeting tonight:

XME: Hammer candle formed today and could be poised to make a possible pop from here

CAT: Has been chopping around support of 81.20 - 81.50'ish and you might be able to call it a bull flag pattern that's forming(ed). Good longer term play too.

DE: Almost a hammer but more of a Dragonfly Doji: "A Doji where the open and close price are at the high of the day. Like other Doji days, this one normally appears at market turning points"

CF: This is an Agricultural play that has formed a doji and is resting on broken resistence which is acting like support. But no one seems to know what's going on with the Ag's so be careful...

POT: is on crack

BA: Could be rolling over here; right up against resistence so if you played it to the down side and we're wrong, your risk is very small. MACD rolling over as well...

ETN: Thinking about doing a 95/100 bear call spread as a hedge for the 2nd offering of stock that they're coming out with (which is priced at 84.00 (I THINK! CAN'T REMEMBER SO MAKE SURE YOU FIND OUT)).

GLW: This is a longer term play from the basis of this...and bare with me...With TV's having to go from analog to digital, fiber has to be supplied to handle the bandwith. So from a supply side, Corning appears to be the one grabbing all of these contracts. $27.04 is it's 52-week closing price high...today it closed at $27.03.

That's about all.....OH! There's some economic data being released tomorrow morning so keep an eye for that. It could swing us the other way but at this point who knows.

Happy Trading!!!

-Matt J

Wednesday, April 30, 2008


Well oh well.....the Fed came, the Fed announced, the markets...faultered? More or less, as it's been deemed, it was pretty much a "non-event". The 0.25 cut was so expected, and the verbiage afterwards was so dull...there wasn't a surprise by any imagine. Take a look at the internals below...

Whoops, wrong internals; that's just a finger painting by Gerald at the age of 2! HA!

Ok, there we go...the Internals of the market did a 180; once we knew that we weren't going to blast higher. And like I said before, I felt/feel like we've been looking for an excuse to head lower and I believe we just got it...Up against resistance; nice gains on the day, then WHAM!!

Tuesday, April 29, 2008


I just don't know how you couldn't be bearish here...the risk reward is good because if you're wrong then you've got a tight stop and an extremely bullish move will follow suit...For me, I see to much overhead resistence to get through this. I mean, it would take some crazy announcement to get it through these levels.....like.........A FED DECISION?!? HA!

Monday, April 28, 2008

Plays For Now

Ok...so i'm taking some shots before the Fed makes an announcement on Wednesday. I have extremely tight stops and if it works out...it works out. There was hardly any volume in today's action and I can't expect there to be any volume or participation tomorrow...That being said, here are my plays for tomorrow (4/29).

First up is AVID...I don't know what they do nor do I care. Obviously their earnings stunk and I have a short term target of $19.60 to $19.50'ish....again, just looking for a quick buck before the Fed announcement...

Second in the list...COP; ConocoPhillips; This is strictly a counter trend trade considering what Oil has been doing...Looking to call a top and I shorted it, again, today.

Third...FLR, and again, no clue what they do; but what I like about them is the divergence that I see...Higher high's on less and less momentum...it's rejected the 163 price level twice and I shorted it here...

Fourth, FWLT, I shorted this on Friday (the previous candle) and it didn't work out for me so I closed the trade before the close (didn't want to take a theta hit) and I reentered today. A lot of topping tails forming at the 70 level and MACD looking to roll over. (However, you could play it as a bull flag which is why my stops are so tight).

Lastly, I'm calling a short term top in oil...Call me stupid, but I'm just begging to short it here...The general census among society is that oil is through the roof (which it is); but when something becomes this "public" (for lack of a better word) that's about when it changes direction..."Buy the rumor, sell the news"...

Thursday, April 24, 2008


I shorted COP here...Slammed right into resistence and MACD turing over. Obviously they had earnings but I'm not concerned what was said; purely a technical play.

Breaking Higher?

I don't know about you but if we break this downtrend line then i would expect that we could see some bullish action for a while...

...But I'm not buying it because volume has been slowly but surely decreasing since mid-march.

Saturday, April 19, 2008

Another Day...

In case I go missing...I'm near Quito, MS....who knew....

-Matt J
Sent via BlackBerry from AT&T

Thursday, April 17, 2008

Meeting Review

Below is a list of topics that we discussed during the online group meeting tonight. Please feel free to ask any questions that you may have.

MOO - Agricultural ETF (Tracks stocks like POT, MOS, etc.)

XME - Metals and Mining ETF

POT - Not a whole lot to say about this one other than it's bullish and earnings are coming up. The 190/185 Bull/Put Vertical has a nice credit if it can stay above these levels (I'm personally expecting a pullback before earnings).

CAM - Looking for a pull back; bumping up against resistance at 50; earnings coming up.

FWLT - Shorting opportunity; 64 appears to be good resistence

FLR - Shorting opportunity? A pullback could be in order and there are visible signs of divergence with the MACD (higher high's on less momentum; 160 is resistence

TSN - Broken above 200 MA on good volume. Today's action was extremely bullish with BIG volume and BIG white candle. Also, thanks to Terry, he pointed out that it's resting SMACK-DAB on 50% Fib line from the swing high of June 07 to the swing low of Jan. 08...Will it keep going?

$VIX - Last but not least....what's this thing going to do? I personally have it breaking below the uptrending support line and resting on a horizontal support line at ~20.35 (today's low). You can argue that MACD is getting weaker and this thing is going lower (divergence).

So where we go from here who knows, just manage your risk; Plan your trades and trade your plans...

Happy trading and don't hesitate to ask any kind of question that you may have, no matter how simple or complex.


-Matt J

Friday, April 11, 2008

After the close...

Today was an ugly day if you were bullish....and a pretty day if you were bearish...Here are the closing prices and changes in some of the indices.

Have a great weekend!!!

Lower at the open

Here are the futures before today's open.......we're heading lower into the open and who knows if it will continue. I thought we were heading lower yesterday but it looks like I was a day early. But this down turn is due to the unexpected crappy earnings by GE....funny how the $VIX has been hanging out around its support and all of the major indices have looked like they want to roll over....Now they have an excuse to do so.

Thursday, April 10, 2008

Favorite Kind of Entry

Here is one of my favorite kinds of entry.....Take a look at all 3 of these charts; The same currency pair, EUR/JPY and they're all telling me the same thing......to short!

Above is a daily chart and the MACD looks to be rolling to the downside and it formed a nice hanging man...

Above is the same currency, but on an hourly chart...what's it telling you? The same thing, MACD is looking to be rolling over and down...

Yet again, here's a 15min chart, with MACD doing what? Rolling over and down....

Again, this is one of my favorite things to look for when trying to time my entries. Right now, I'm short 1 mini contract and since I've started this post I'm down $5.00. But currencies have such a violent attitude it can swing in any direction whenever it wants....very moody.

And I'm not saying this is a perfect method; but it's something that I like to help improve my "edge"....I hope that all is well and I'll keep you updated on how it goes.

Wednesday, April 9, 2008


Sorry I haven't posted in a while; I've been busy through out the week and I'm working more at night.

I will update more once this week is over (probably Sunday).

Quick update: I'm out of GGB (as of yesterday) because it was looking weak and I wanted to keep the gains so I tightened up my stop and it was triggered.

Also, I'm still in DNR but after today's action I'm thinking we're heading lower; so I've moved my stop to just under today's close. I won't be surprised if I get stopped out tomorrow (and watch it rally; but hey, you can't have your cake and eat it too).

New short position: EUR/JPY looks like a great opportunity for a short entry; so I took it. Thanks Dave for the heads up on this chart!

I hope all is well and I will talk to you later...

-Matt J
Sent via BlackBerry from AT&T

Monday, April 7, 2008

NWA Update

For those of you who remember (and if you don't, scroll down to the post about NWA - Northwest Airlines); there was a lot of option activity on the call side of things. I checked again today and there seems to be more option activity on the call side.

Today's Action:
~ 7,000 calls compared to ~700 puts for the month of April.

~31,000 calls compared to 441 puts for the month of May.

~1,000 calls compared to 37 puts for the month of September.

The bets continue!!!

Sunday, April 6, 2008

DNR Update

Maybe you remember that I was looking for DNR to get past 30? Well I was. And Friday it did with pretty good volume. MACD is continuing to roll up but it's still -0.01; My target for this thing is 33 and I'll be adjusting stops as we go. I feel pretty confident that it will get there.


Here's a test. Above is a "before" chart and beneath that is an "after" chart. Now keep in mind there were a lot of additional factors besides just the chart that helped me make my decision.... But...Based on the above chart, which direction would you be looking for GGB to move: UP, DOWN or SIDEWAYS?

I was looking for it to go up; but I have to admit that I didn't think it was going to move like it did. What's even better is that volume has been relatively high confirming the move. Now I just have to lock in the gains and make sure I don't lose any of what I gained...

Wednesday, April 2, 2008

DNR Update

Here's an hourly chart for DNR. And what I'm seeing, which may be a little far fetched, is an inverted head & shoulders pattern. The second shoulder looks to have been completed today (depending on where you draw your lines); but if it is a H&S pattern then it's a skewed one.

To be honest, I don't think it is and I really just want it to get up and over 30 with volume. 30 right now is heavy resistance. We'll just have to see what happens over the next few days...

Monday, March 31, 2008

NWA: Northwest Airlines

FYI; there's a whole lot of option activity with NWA - Northwest Airlines - on the call side that traded today. More specifically, the June '08 17.50 call option had a volume of 51,410 and the September '08, 7.50 calls had 50,919...

Below is the chart and I hate it; it's an ugly one to me; but all of this activity has to be based off of the thought that NWA will merge with Delta (if it happens).

(The arrow is there to show you when the CFO of the company sold some of his shares...HA!)

Sunday, March 30, 2008


I like this to the upside (short term) and I'm playing it based off of the triangle breakaway.

Here's an explanation of a triangle from Investopedia.com

"A chart pattern used in technical analysis that is easily recognized by the distinct shape created by two converging trendlines. The pattern is identified by drawing two trendlines that connect a series of sequentially lower peaks and a series of sequentially higher troughs. Both trendlines act as barriers that prevent the price from heading higher or lower, but once the price breaches one of these levels, a sharp movement often follows

A symmetrical triangle is generally regarded as a period of consolidation before the price moves beyond one of the identified trendlines. A break below the lower trendline is used by technical traders to signal a move lower, while a break above the upper trendline signals the beginning of a move upward. Technical traders use a sharp increase in volume or any other available technical indicator to confirm a breakout beyond one of the trendlines. The sharp price movement that often follows a breakout of this formation can be captured by traders who are able to identify the pattern early enough."