Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Now that that's out of the way....There's a bubble in the market (Thanks to E for pointing it out)...Bonds. Just look at TLT (which is a way to trade the bonds)....it's going straight up. And when the markets decide to get a good bounce going.....this thing is going to tank!!!
I will try to post more from here on out. I know that starting Jan. 1, 2009; I'll be able to provide more TLC to this blog.
Friday, October 17, 2008
I went back and looked at a chart of gold & silver and their charts are trending down! This shouldn't be right and it just goes to show how F'd up this market is!!! Gold is supposed to be a 'flight to safety' or a 'safe haven' in times of economic trouble....but there's no safety here either!!! Where the heck is all of the money being put to work at?!?
This market is not behaving like it has in the past and it's defining new rules.
Time for my meeting...
Sent from iPhone
Monday, October 13, 2008
The Dow was up 936!!! (See below)
The S&P 500 was up 104! (See below)
Is this the absolute bottom? Who knows, and time will tell. But for now, I'm playing and have been positioned for a reversal to the upside since Thursday (10/9/08).....And if you haven't noticed, we passed Friday and Thursday's levels today in 1 swing.
I'll post again later to summarize what happened.
Friday, October 10, 2008
Now the next question becomes....'When do we bottom'?
And to be honest I have absolutely no idea or even how to guess. I want to say that somewhere around 800 is where we'll bottom because that is an extremely hard support level. But this is not a fundamental or technical market anymore; they've both been thrown out the window. This market is trading on psychology and sentiment...and right now absolutely everyone is in a "doom and gloom" mood. Even the sports radio show I was listening to today.
But i will say this; the day we turn around; we'll probably see an +800 or maybe even +1000 one-day gain in the market. I think there's so much money on the sidelines just waiting for an entry it's not even funny. So when one money pool sees another go in; and another sees those two; etc. it'll just BOOM! (although, 'SHOULD' is no gaurantee).
Just hang in there; I really think we're close. And if anything be happy that oil is down to 77.50!!!
Have a great weekend!!
Monday, September 29, 2008
Thursday, September 4, 2008
Ok - So I thought I would update you on the 3 currency pair positions that I have on and when I got in and what I thought it would do at the time of entry. I'm looking to exit two of them and 1 is testing my patience.
USD/CAD: I was looking for a pull back off of resistance and it did that the day after my entry but today's action moved up just over my entry. I'm trying to be patient.
USD/JPY: I shorted this pair and it's pulled back a good bit today. I'll be looking to exit this one.
EUR/CHF: This is the first currency pair I shorted that we've been following. Obviously my favorite because it has made it's move that I was looking for. 1.58 (the dashed horizontal line) is a LONG, Long, long term support...like a monthly support line. I've tightened my stops and I'm looking to exit with good profit.
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
It's only been one day, but so far so good. It's dropped as I was looking for it to. I've thought about adding to the position but I don't want to blow up my account if it makes a sharp turn around. A daily chart is below and I got in on the day the "shooting star" candle formed.
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
Another Short possibility? I'm looking at a Weekly chart of the USD/CAD currency pair. The daily chart looks pretty bearish as well...but I'm short this pair and would love for the trend to continue.
Monday, September 1, 2008
Above is the daily chart and below is a weekly chart for the EUR/CHF (which again is the Euro - Franc currency pair)...I shorted it a couple of weeks ago expected a pull back and it's gone as planned. I'm still in it and I'll be using the weekly chart to look for an exit. I've made money but I'm looking for more.
Sunday, August 17, 2008
Looking at the SPY or what's really the S&P 500, I'm looking for a pullback to be coming...
If you can see through all of the crap I have on my chart, I'll explain why I think that...For starters, since the near term bottom on 7/15 the volume has slowly been tailing off; that's a little bearish in my eyes. Also, using Fibonacci Fan's, the SPY is currently up against some resistance...(Almost done explaining)...The green lines I have drawn, represent a 'bear flag' or 'rising wedge' (which is also bearish)...
Just my opinion of the current condition of the SPY.
So here's another update. I'm still in my short position on this currency pair and I'm really liking the move it made Friday (it went down a good bit). I'm expecting a pull back or a bounce this week and I'm staring at a chart right now because I want to maximize my gains....I'm happy!
Sunday, August 10, 2008
Here's an update on the short position that I'm still in. So far so good and moving in my favor. It took a while to move to the down side but I'll take it. I'm still in the short (1 mini contract). I'm using the Weekly, Daily, and 2 hour chart to look for an exit. Above is the daily chart and below is the weekly chart. The weekly looks more bearish
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
When looking at this chart and looking at an hourly chart; I'm expecting this currency pair to drop. The hourly chart is showing some divergence on the MACD (graph not shown) as it approaches the resistance...I shorted 1 mini contract here (cost basis: 1.6329) and will short another if it breaks in my direction.
Thursday, July 10, 2008
Sunday, July 6, 2008
My Goal: Review all of my 2008 trades
I will review each and every trade and ask myself the following questions. Was it a winner or loser? What went right/wrong? Could I have done something different to make it more profitable? If so, what?
This is a tall order but with me wanting to trade full time; I believe that this is a necessary step.
Thursday, June 26, 2008
I think everyone will agree that today was a bearish jump off the side of a cliff!!! I love days like this (if I'm positioned for it - which I wasn't because it's too hard for me to trade in this kind of environment as of recently).
When looking at the $SPX the momentum (Red line) on MFC study is at 0. So i got curious as to how many times the red line has actually hit 0 in the last 2 years...Well, it's only happened 2 other times besides today. Of those 2 days, the very next trading session resulted in one session at +15 points (7/30/07) and the second session resulted in -13 points (2/6/08)...So, to go a little further, I wondered how many times the Red line closed at 1 or below, and what did the SPX do the day after.
Here are the results:
SPX Rallies w/ momentum line @ or below 1.00
03/06/07: +19 Points (5 day rally)
03/14/07: +11 Points (2 day rally)
05/01/07: +4 points (5 day rally)
05/11/07: +14 points (1 day rally)
06/08/07: +17 points (2 day rally)
06/13/07: +23 Points (3 day rally)
07/11/07: +9 points (3 day rally)
07/30/07: +15 points **(Red line was @ zero day before)**
08/06/07: +34 points (3 day rally)
08/10/07: .55 cents (Flat; no rally)
08/14/07: -20 points (rallied close to 8 more days after that)
08/29/07: +31 points (1 day rally)
10/22/07: +10 points (2 day rally)
11/13/07: +40 points (1 day rally)
12/17/07: -20 points (rallied close to 6 days after that)
12/18/07: +9 points (same rally as above)
01/07/08: +2 points (1 day rally)
01/16/08: -4 points (fell 3 more days after that)
02/06/08: -13 points **(Red line was @ zero day before)**
03/11/08: +46 points (1 day rally)
03/27/08: -15 points
06/12/08: +4 points (3 day rally)
06/27/08: ?????????? **(Red line was @ zero day before)**
------------ --------- --------- --------- --------
The date represents the trading session after the Red line reaching 1 or below. The +/- of points is how many points on the $SPX that were either gained or lost in that 1 day. The 3rd column tells us how many days after the reading that the SPX rallied once the red line hit 1 or below...
In the past 2 years, the $SPX has rallied 17/22 sessions. Of those 17 trading days, it's averaged a positive gain of +17 points...
Just thought I'd share what I found.
-And I've been MIA for a while; but I'm looking to get back on track. I apologize for the delay and will be coming back in full force shortly.
Thanks for your patience and have a great day!
Sunday, June 8, 2008
Friday, June 6, 2008
Entry (5/30) @ 103.41
Exit (6/6) @ 108.23
Net Result: +$482.00
We're batting 1.000 after 1 trade.
I have put in a market order to exit at the open.
Wednesday, June 4, 2008
Friday, May 30, 2008
In any case, I thought it would be a good idea to track and post on this 'system' to see how many winners we get against losers. I'm going to paper trade this with a $100,000 account and we'll be able to follow the progress...I'm only go to trade the stock (no options) just for making it easier.
-Use the Market Forecast study in prophet charts.
-Use study set "Market Forecast" and simple moving averages (3 of them) with an 8/21/30 day period for each moving average.
-Trade in the direction of the trend only.
-Make every effort to enter trade just prior to close on the day the signal appears or right at the open of the the next trading day.
-Enter trade when red line is at or below 10 in "lower reversal zone".
-Exit when either red (momentum line), or the blue (near-term line) has touched or entered "upper reversal zone" (80 or higher).
-Be very cautious during reversals that have not clearly signaled; and/or the trend and MA's are flat; or there is no clear crossover of the moving averages, and intermediate line is below 50.
-During a flat time period with no bias, only trade Blue & Red cluster's in lower reversal zone and exit when either one of them have hit the upper reversal zone.
Wednesday, May 28, 2008
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
My target is the range between $88.80 and $90'ish; my stop is above today's swing high. Plan the trade and trade the plan.
"Even a broken clock is right twice a day"
Oh so true...& I strongly recommend you check out his site and listen to what he has to say...
Sent via BlackBerry from AT&T
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Very elementary when you think about it; but people aren't going to spend their money on 'stuff' when they get their check...they're gonna spend it on gas and food because its getting so dang expensive...$15 gallon of gas/$20 gallon of milk....you might laugh but at the rate we're going it won't take long...and it'll only get worse unless we find a top....
But I wonder, a 'pop' in one bubble should create a new bubble..........right?
Sent via BlackBerry from AT&T
Here's one that was brought to my attention (Thanks Dave); this one had a low risk entry with the hammer (or two) that formed a few days ago. That's when I got in on 2 mini contracts (to the long side) and I'm still in it....
Sunday, May 18, 2008
I hope you continue to check back...I'll post something tonight.
Sunday, May 4, 2008
I don't like that one bit! And as much as I would love to go to credit spreads; the VIX isn't paying anything out. I hate sitting on hands for long periods of time but I have to make myself do it. I might be moving to paper again, or I might just be sitting and observing for the week. I don't know; I'm going to sleep on it and decide in the morning.
I hope that you are having better trading days than I am and have a great week!
Thursday, May 1, 2008
XME: Hammer candle formed today and could be poised to make a possible pop from here
CAT: Has been chopping around support of 81.20 - 81.50'ish and you might be able to call it a bull flag pattern that's forming(ed). Good longer term play too.
DE: Almost a hammer but more of a Dragonfly Doji: "A Doji where the open and close price are at the high of the day. Like other Doji days, this one normally appears at market turning points"
CF: This is an Agricultural play that has formed a doji and is resting on broken resistence which is acting like support. But no one seems to know what's going on with the Ag's so be careful...
POT: is on crack
BA: Could be rolling over here; right up against resistence so if you played it to the down side and we're wrong, your risk is very small. MACD rolling over as well...
ETN: Thinking about doing a 95/100 bear call spread as a hedge for the 2nd offering of stock that they're coming out with (which is priced at 84.00 (I THINK! CAN'T REMEMBER SO MAKE SURE YOU FIND OUT)).
GLW: This is a longer term play from the basis of this...and bare with me...With TV's having to go from analog to digital, fiber has to be supplied to handle the bandwith. So from a supply side, Corning appears to be the one grabbing all of these contracts. $27.04 is it's 52-week closing price high...today it closed at $27.03.
That's about all.....OH! There's some economic data being released tomorrow morning so keep an eye for that. It could swing us the other way but at this point who knows.
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Monday, April 28, 2008
First up is AVID...I don't know what they do nor do I care. Obviously their earnings stunk and I have a short term target of $19.60 to $19.50'ish....again, just looking for a quick buck before the Fed announcement...
Thursday, April 24, 2008
I shorted COP here...Slammed right into resistence and MACD turing over. Obviously they had earnings but I'm not concerned what was said; purely a technical play.
...But I'm not buying it because volume has been slowly but surely decreasing since mid-march.
Saturday, April 19, 2008
Thursday, April 17, 2008
MOO - Agricultural ETF (Tracks stocks like POT, MOS, etc.)
XME - Metals and Mining ETF
POT - Not a whole lot to say about this one other than it's bullish and earnings are coming up. The 190/185 Bull/Put Vertical has a nice credit if it can stay above these levels (I'm personally expecting a pullback before earnings).
CAM - Looking for a pull back; bumping up against resistance at 50; earnings coming up.
FWLT - Shorting opportunity; 64 appears to be good resistence
FLR - Shorting opportunity? A pullback could be in order and there are visible signs of divergence with the MACD (higher high's on less momentum; 160 is resistence
TSN - Broken above 200 MA on good volume. Today's action was extremely bullish with BIG volume and BIG white candle. Also, thanks to Terry, he pointed out that it's resting SMACK-DAB on 50% Fib line from the swing high of June 07 to the swing low of Jan. 08...Will it keep going?
$VIX - Last but not least....what's this thing going to do? I personally have it breaking below the uptrending support line and resting on a horizontal support line at ~20.35 (today's low). You can argue that MACD is getting weaker and this thing is going lower (divergence).
So where we go from here who knows, just manage your risk; Plan your trades and trade your plans...
Happy trading and don't hesitate to ask any kind of question that you may have, no matter how simple or complex.
Friday, April 11, 2008
Today was an ugly day if you were bullish....and a pretty day if you were bearish...Here are the closing prices and changes in some of the indices.
Have a great weekend!!!
Thursday, April 10, 2008
Wednesday, April 9, 2008
I will update more once this week is over (probably Sunday).
Quick update: I'm out of GGB (as of yesterday) because it was looking weak and I wanted to keep the gains so I tightened up my stop and it was triggered.
Also, I'm still in DNR but after today's action I'm thinking we're heading lower; so I've moved my stop to just under today's close. I won't be surprised if I get stopped out tomorrow (and watch it rally; but hey, you can't have your cake and eat it too).
New short position: EUR/JPY looks like a great opportunity for a short entry; so I took it. Thanks Dave for the heads up on this chart!
I hope all is well and I will talk to you later...
Sent via BlackBerry from AT&T
Monday, April 7, 2008
~ 7,000 calls compared to ~700 puts for the month of April.
~31,000 calls compared to 441 puts for the month of May.
~1,000 calls compared to 37 puts for the month of September.
Sunday, April 6, 2008
Maybe you remember that I was looking for DNR to get past 30? Well I was. And Friday it did with pretty good volume. MACD is continuing to roll up but it's still -0.01; My target for this thing is 33 and I'll be adjusting stops as we go. I feel pretty confident that it will get there.
I was looking for it to go up; but I have to admit that I didn't think it was going to move like it did. What's even better is that volume has been relatively high confirming the move. Now I just have to lock in the gains and make sure I don't lose any of what I gained...
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
To be honest, I don't think it is and I really just want it to get up and over 30 with volume. 30 right now is heavy resistance. We'll just have to see what happens over the next few days...