NWA: Northwest Airlines

FYI; there's a whole lot of option activity with NWA - Northwest Airlines - on the call side that traded today. More specifically, the June '08 17.50 call option had a volume of 51,410 and the September '08, 7.50 calls had 50,919...

Below is the chart and I hate it; it's an ugly one to me; but all of this activity has to be based off of the thought that NWA will merge with Delta (if it happens).

(The arrow is there to show you when the CFO of the company sold some of his shares...HA!)

TNE

I like this to the upside (short term) and I'm playing it based off of the triangle breakaway.

Here's an explanation of a triangle from Investopedia.com

"A chart pattern used in technical analysis that is easily recognized by the distinct shape created by two converging trendlines. The pattern is identified by drawing two trendlines that connect a series of sequentially lower peaks and a series of sequentially higher troughs. Both trendlines act as barriers that prevent the price from heading higher or lower, but once the price breaches one of these levels, a sharp movement often follows

A symmetrical triangle is generally regarded as a period of consolidation before the price moves beyond one of the identified trendlines. A break below the lower trendline is used by technical traders to signal a move lower, while a break above the upper trendline signals the beginning of a move upward. Technical traders use a sharp increase in volume or any other available technical indicator to confirm a breakout beyond one of the trendlines. The sharp price movement that often follows a breakout of this formation can be captured by traders who are able to identify the pattern early enough."

Prophecy

No Seriously....If you think we're in trouble now.....watch this video. Warning: It's going to scare you.

DNR Update

This is an hourly chart of DNR over the last 60 days. What do you see that I see....Where is resistance? It's at 30.00.

I need this thing to bust through 30 before I get to see it go to 33. Tightened my stops and will post if I get stopped out. I just like how it's been consolidating for the past 2 days on less momentum (divergence - I think)....Correct me if I'm wrong.

Have a great day!

This is another vehicle I got in on Monday (the day after the hammer)...I just liked the way this one trends and I took the October 18 Call...Today has made a good move (thus far) and it can easily sell off into the close...

Roll Tide!

I know this has nothing to do with the markets or trading...but I you gotta check out the Russian Red Army Choir singing Sweet Home Alabama....

(Football season is coming and you'll probably get a lot of posts on Alabama football)

Long DNR

Currently I'm bullish on this trade. DNR. Another nice hammer with great volume and then the day after the hammer there's a bullish engulfing pattern (another bullish signal); lastly today's price action with good volume makes me feel even better...

2 Fold

I had a longer post...but I don't feel like getting into it again because it messed up when posting...

Abbreviated version:

Ticker MOS: Bullish day expected; MACD rolling up; gapped open above a fib line; it all depends on the close.

Picture of cramer funny

Have good day

Want to see a hammer?

Want to see what a hammer candle stick looks like? Check out the USD/JPY currency pair on a 5year - weekly chart. This hammer formed over a 1 week period of time; very powerful in my book...

Motivation

What a day

This should be a great week; and I need to cheer up!

In any case, I have mostly bullish positions on and I should be ok this week. I'm expecting a bullish run and that's why I expect to do good but my perception is never the markets resulting reality.

Price action is king!

-Matt J
Sent via BlackBerry from AT&T

Online Meeting Results

Go Check out this blog to see what we found during our trading club!

http://marketriskandreward.blogspot.com/

GOOD FRIDAY!!!

MA Post 2

I apologize for not posting again on this...MA (Mastercard); Break out or fake out?

Well, if you consider the swing highs that form the triangle (as pictured above); it closed the holiday week right above the resistance line. It traded higher than the line but pulled back just a bit. And it perks my attention that the massive amount of volume I was looking for to confirm a break out; happened on the previous day...and the previous day was a down day.

Overall, I'm cautiously bearish on this...in any case i'm not trading this because it would break a rule ("Don't trade stocks that are over $200 per share")...I'm posting about it because I like the technical pattern...

Have a blessed weekend!

Visa IPO!!!

And I'm not touching it...what I'm curious about is MA (Mastercard).

It appears to be in a pretty good looking pendant. A rising tide lifts all ships? Could the Visa IPO lift this boat?

It looks like a technical dream if it closes above resistance with strong volume...COULD be breaking out. I'm not going to jump the gun, but volume has been increasing over the last several days; MACD has been increasing....and actually, volume right now is really heavy since I took this picture.

I have a vertical on this right now...185/180 Bull/Put for April. I think I'll be safe above 185, but I'll add a put or a bear/call if it can't break over the resistance line...Again, this photo was taken at 8:45am...things can change!

Have a great day!!!

NOTE: There is 4.581 times more call option volume today than there has been in the last 5 days with MA. Put option volume is 2.616 times the 5 day average...More up bets than down bets.

After the close

And here's how we finished....Check out how the VIX got SLAMMED!!!!

The S&P 500 was up 53!

The DOW was up a HUGE 419!

But will the prices hold?

Well...

The FED cut rates today...0.75 basis points.

The market seems to like it right now...volume after the announcement was craZy! It'll be interesting to see how we close!!!

Later!

Ugly Open

As of right now; we're heading into an ugly monday.....

This post idea comes from Dave (thanks Dave)

Open Positions

Here are my open currency positions. I placed these all around the FED announcement today; then after the knee jerk reaction was over I exited a couple and reduced sizes in the others...

In any case, I have stops at break even for 2 of them (EUR/USD & EUR/CAD). I'm starring at the other 2 to see if I just want to close them out.

I'll keep you posted when I can...and if you haven't noticed, I'm extremely bearish on the EUR rig...

Count Censored

It's amazing what a bleep can do...



(By the way, the word getting bleeped is "count")

Get Hammered

My position is getting hammered right now...

Looking for a better exit...

I'll keep you posted.

Back In

As of right now, I'm short 2 mini's on the EUR/CAD....

I'll keep you updated

EUR/CAD

YO YO YO! Just another day...I'm sitting in my apartment dead-tired staring at the EUR/CAD. And when I say staring...I am. Anytime, while I write this post, that you see an * that's me checking the chart...

*...And I actually just exited my position short position at a small loss; this thing isn't acting right...*...I'm anticipating for it to break downwards as it has been * looking to roll over on the daily chart. * Now, I'm using a 2 day 2 min. chart to stare at this thing and gauge my entry...**...*...but the daily chart has a triangle showing and it's right at the upper resistence line (pictured below).

I just don't want it to be breaking from this pattern to break out to the upside. HOWEVER!!! I'm going to continuously watch this pair to play either direction (I just think it's going down because of the divergence and the 'hanging man' that formed on the 6th...*...but the EUR has been on a RUN!)

I hope all is well with whoever reads this and I wish you the very best!

-Matt J

Airport

Alright, well I'm in Orlando's airport and my flight has been delayed.....TWICE!!!

No famous people yet; but I'll keep my eyes open.

-Matt J
Sent via BlackBerry from AT&T

My Clean Office

Here's a picture of my office...from the road. Thanks to Shelley I'm bumming an internet connection from a McDonald's parking lot in Gadsden, AL.

This is also where I make my trades when I'm not stationary in a building. I'm actually watching the cad/jpy right now...

I'll post again later on.

-Matt J
Sent via BlackBerry from AT&T

Current Situation

(click image to zoom in)

Back in again...Here's why

Take a look at the picture and you'll see that I'm short 2 mini's on the GBP/JPY and the CAD/JPY. In the first short, I saw that the MACD was looking to roll over and the candles were showing relative weakness; so I shorted 1 mini....

However, the price action continued higher and the MACD went up but not as high relative to my previous short. This is an indication that momentum to the upside is running out (It's reaching higher high's on less momentum)...So I shorted another contract...

I'll continue to post on this trade.

And I'm Out

After watching the behavior of the GBP/JPY and the CAD/JPY; I decided to exit the postion at a profit and wait for confirmation that the move downward is going to continue. I might wait for a re-entry here in the next hour...but we'll see; and even as I write this post I could have been faked out....

The CAD/JPY (above) did a weird thing in running down at 8:30am and then popping back up at 10:00am....I just don't like that and I'm not used to seeing this happen so I don't know how to handle...yet.



The GBP/JPY (above) did the opposite; popped up and then ran down....Again, not used to seeing this or trading this.

Waiting for re-entry....

Currencies Not Acting Right

I'm currently in these positions (short) but I don't like the price action that I'm seeing. It could be short-covering in a major way or it could be that we found a short-term bottom for the crazy run down we've made over the last few trading days...

Either or I'm watching it closely and might be exiting my shorts...

Another Day

And thus a new week/month begins....

It should be a good one. I'm actually going to Orlando on Wednesday for a sales conference and that should be fun.

Other than that, that's about all.