FED DAY!!!

Well oh well.....the Fed came, the Fed announced, the markets...faultered? More or less, as it's been deemed, it was pretty much a "non-event". The 0.25 cut was so expected, and the verbiage afterwards was so dull...there wasn't a surprise by any imagine. Take a look at the internals below...

Whoops, wrong internals; that's just a finger painting by Gerald at the age of 2! HA!

Ok, there we go...the Internals of the market did a 180; once we knew that we weren't going to blast higher. And like I said before, I felt/feel like we've been looking for an excuse to head lower and I believe we just got it...Up against resistance; nice gains on the day, then WHAM!!

SPY

I just don't know how you couldn't be bearish here...the risk reward is good because if you're wrong then you've got a tight stop and an extremely bullish move will follow suit...For me, I see to much overhead resistence to get through this. I mean, it would take some crazy announcement to get it through these levels.....like.........A FED DECISION?!? HA!

Plays For Now

Ok...so i'm taking some shots before the Fed makes an announcement on Wednesday. I have extremely tight stops and if it works out...it works out. There was hardly any volume in today's action and I can't expect there to be any volume or participation tomorrow...That being said, here are my plays for tomorrow (4/29).

First up is AVID...I don't know what they do nor do I care. Obviously their earnings stunk and I have a short term target of $19.60 to $19.50'ish....again, just looking for a quick buck before the Fed announcement...

Second in the list...COP; ConocoPhillips; This is strictly a counter trend trade considering what Oil has been doing...Looking to call a top and I shorted it, again, today.

Third...FLR, and again, no clue what they do; but what I like about them is the divergence that I see...Higher high's on less and less momentum...it's rejected the 163 price level twice and I shorted it here...

Fourth, FWLT, I shorted this on Friday (the previous candle) and it didn't work out for me so I closed the trade before the close (didn't want to take a theta hit) and I reentered today. A lot of topping tails forming at the 70 level and MACD looking to roll over. (However, you could play it as a bull flag which is why my stops are so tight).

Lastly, I'm calling a short term top in oil...Call me stupid, but I'm just begging to short it here...The general census among society is that oil is through the roof (which it is); but when something becomes this "public" (for lack of a better word) that's about when it changes direction..."Buy the rumor, sell the news"...

COP

I shorted COP here...Slammed right into resistence and MACD turing over. Obviously they had earnings but I'm not concerned what was said; purely a technical play.

Breaking Higher?

I don't know about you but if we break this downtrend line then i would expect that we could see some bullish action for a while...

...But I'm not buying it because volume has been slowly but surely decreasing since mid-march.

Another Day...

In case I go missing...I'm near Quito, MS....who knew....

-Matt J
Sent via BlackBerry from AT&T

Meeting Review

Below is a list of topics that we discussed during the online group meeting tonight. Please feel free to ask any questions that you may have.

Tickers:
MOO - Agricultural ETF (Tracks stocks like POT, MOS, etc.)

XME - Metals and Mining ETF

POT - Not a whole lot to say about this one other than it's bullish and earnings are coming up. The 190/185 Bull/Put Vertical has a nice credit if it can stay above these levels (I'm personally expecting a pullback before earnings).

CAM - Looking for a pull back; bumping up against resistance at 50; earnings coming up.

FWLT - Shorting opportunity; 64 appears to be good resistence

FLR - Shorting opportunity? A pullback could be in order and there are visible signs of divergence with the MACD (higher high's on less momentum; 160 is resistence

TSN - Broken above 200 MA on good volume. Today's action was extremely bullish with BIG volume and BIG white candle. Also, thanks to Terry, he pointed out that it's resting SMACK-DAB on 50% Fib line from the swing high of June 07 to the swing low of Jan. 08...Will it keep going?

$VIX - Last but not least....what's this thing going to do? I personally have it breaking below the uptrending support line and resting on a horizontal support line at ~20.35 (today's low). You can argue that MACD is getting weaker and this thing is going lower (divergence).

So where we go from here who knows, just manage your risk; Plan your trades and trade your plans...

Happy trading and don't hesitate to ask any kind of question that you may have, no matter how simple or complex.

Thanks!

-Matt J

After the close...

Today was an ugly day if you were bullish....and a pretty day if you were bearish...Here are the closing prices and changes in some of the indices.

Have a great weekend!!!

Lower at the open

Here are the futures before today's open.......we're heading lower into the open and who knows if it will continue. I thought we were heading lower yesterday but it looks like I was a day early. But this down turn is due to the unexpected crappy earnings by GE....funny how the $VIX has been hanging out around its support and all of the major indices have looked like they want to roll over....Now they have an excuse to do so.

Favorite Kind of Entry

Here is one of my favorite kinds of entry.....Take a look at all 3 of these charts; The same currency pair, EUR/JPY and they're all telling me the same thing......to short!

Above is a daily chart and the MACD looks to be rolling to the downside and it formed a nice hanging man...

Above is the same currency, but on an hourly chart...what's it telling you? The same thing, MACD is looking to be rolling over and down...

Yet again, here's a 15min chart, with MACD doing what? Rolling over and down....

Again, this is one of my favorite things to look for when trying to time my entries. Right now, I'm short 1 mini contract and since I've started this post I'm down $5.00. But currencies have such a violent attitude it can swing in any direction whenever it wants....very moody.

And I'm not saying this is a perfect method; but it's something that I like to help improve my "edge"....I hope that all is well and I'll keep you updated on how it goes.

Postings

Sorry I haven't posted in a while; I've been busy through out the week and I'm working more at night.

I will update more once this week is over (probably Sunday).

Quick update: I'm out of GGB (as of yesterday) because it was looking weak and I wanted to keep the gains so I tightened up my stop and it was triggered.

Also, I'm still in DNR but after today's action I'm thinking we're heading lower; so I've moved my stop to just under today's close. I won't be surprised if I get stopped out tomorrow (and watch it rally; but hey, you can't have your cake and eat it too).

New short position: EUR/JPY looks like a great opportunity for a short entry; so I took it. Thanks Dave for the heads up on this chart!

I hope all is well and I will talk to you later...

-Matt J
Sent via BlackBerry from AT&T

NWA Update

For those of you who remember (and if you don't, scroll down to the post about NWA - Northwest Airlines); there was a lot of option activity on the call side of things. I checked again today and there seems to be more option activity on the call side.

Today's Action:
~ 7,000 calls compared to ~700 puts for the month of April.

~31,000 calls compared to 441 puts for the month of May.

~1,000 calls compared to 37 puts for the month of September.

The bets continue!!!

DNR Update

Maybe you remember that I was looking for DNR to get past 30? Well I was. And Friday it did with pretty good volume. MACD is continuing to roll up but it's still -0.01; My target for this thing is 33 and I'll be adjusting stops as we go. I feel pretty confident that it will get there.

GGB

Here's a test. Above is a "before" chart and beneath that is an "after" chart. Now keep in mind there were a lot of additional factors besides just the chart that helped me make my decision.... But...Based on the above chart, which direction would you be looking for GGB to move: UP, DOWN or SIDEWAYS?

I was looking for it to go up; but I have to admit that I didn't think it was going to move like it did. What's even better is that volume has been relatively high confirming the move. Now I just have to lock in the gains and make sure I don't lose any of what I gained...

DNR Update

Here's an hourly chart for DNR. And what I'm seeing, which may be a little far fetched, is an inverted head & shoulders pattern. The second shoulder looks to have been completed today (depending on where you draw your lines); but if it is a H&S pattern then it's a skewed one.

To be honest, I don't think it is and I really just want it to get up and over 30 with volume. 30 right now is heavy resistance. We'll just have to see what happens over the next few days...