Sorry

Sorry for not posting in so long. My job has gotten a little extra busy because everything has slowed down and I needed to focus 120% of my time to work and potential work that would help us out...

Now that that's out of the way....There's a bubble in the market (Thanks to E for pointing it out)...Bonds. Just look at TLT (which is a way to trade the bonds)....it's going straight up. And when the markets decide to get a good bounce going.....this thing is going to tank!!!

I will try to post more from here on out. I know that starting Jan. 1, 2009; I'll be able to provide more TLC to this blog.

-Matt J

WTF!!!

Alright, so as I'm sitting here in my car waiting for a meeting to get started...I take a look at the markets just to get a snapshot of the day...we're down (go figure)....but I notice GLD, SLV, and TLT is down. Now I barely heard CNBC talking about gold this morning and how it's been down in this collapse...which really didn't register. But as I sit here waiting...it hits me what they were saying on TV!

I went back and looked at a chart of gold & silver and their charts are trending down! This shouldn't be right and it just goes to show how F'd up this market is!!! Gold is supposed to be a 'flight to safety' or a 'safe haven' in times of economic trouble....but there's no safety here either!!! Where the heck is all of the money being put to work at?!?

This market is not behaving like it has in the past and it's defining new rules.

Time for my meeting...

-Matt J
Sent from iPhone

HA!

Wow...what a day. As stated before I was expecting (as was a lot of people I'm sure) or "looking for an 800 to 1000 point gain, in a single day". That day came today and we had pretty good volume to support the move. See below.
The Dow was up 936!!! (See below)

The S&P 500 was up 104! (See below)

Is this the absolute bottom? Who knows, and time will tell. But for now, I'm playing and have been positioned for a reversal to the upside since Thursday (10/9/08).....And if you haven't noticed, we passed Friday and Thursday's levels today in 1 swing.

-Matt J

Quick SnapShot of the Day

As of this writing, we're looking pretty good in terms of gains for the day. We're just over half way through the trading day and it'll be interesting to see if we continue at this rate....I would add a screen shot of the tickers that I'm looking at but I can't add them for some reason (my apologies).

I'll post again later to summarize what happened.

-Matt J

Hmm...

So...just like I said previously, "We're crashing".....that's still holding true.

Now the next question becomes....'When do we bottom'?

And to be honest I have absolutely no idea or even how to guess. I want to say that somewhere around 800 is where we'll bottom because that is an extremely hard support level. But this is not a fundamental or technical market anymore; they've both been thrown out the window. This market is trading on psychology and sentiment...and right now absolutely everyone is in a "doom and gloom" mood. Even the sports radio show I was listening to today.

But i will say this; the day we turn around; we'll probably see an +800 or maybe even +1000 one-day gain in the market. I think there's so much money on the sidelines just waiting for an entry it's not even funny. So when one money pool sees another go in; and another sees those two; etc. it'll just BOOM! (although, 'SHOULD' is no gaurantee).

Just hang in there; I really think we're close. And if anything be happy that oil is down to 77.50!!!

Have a great weekend!!

-Matt J

Smack DOWN!!!

Need I say more? The S&P 500 got smacked (-106) and the DOW lost 777 points....from a technical perspective, it could get a lot worse. However, I don't know that this market is trading on technicals....more like...CRACK! But in all seriousness, just look at these charts.

Up above, we've got the DOW with a 20 year time horizon. Clearly, we're moving down, but from a technical perspective, if we don't bounce on that smaller green circle at the 10,000'ish level, then we'll be in a world of hurt. I say this because the next support level is not until about 7,600'ish! I would be that for the short term we'll get a bounce off of the 10,000 level. I would go on to bet that the large institutions will not put as much capital at work to allow the retail trader to bring the markets up and then they'll just short into it.

Above is the S&P 500. Again, we're looking at a 20 year - Monthly chart. Same thing, if we don't get a relief bounce from the upward support line at about 1000'ish we could easily see 800 on the S&P because that's where the next level of support is.

Again, I think we'll get a bounce at the levels where the first/smaller green circles are on my charts. Below, the VIX (volatility index - it's a measurement of fear) it's all the way up to 46!!! When you look at the VIX in the past where we had big drops in the market (just look at the charts above to do that). You'll see that's about where we bottomed out. For example look at the VIX, DOW, and S&P charts back in the 2002-2003 timeframe...the VIX was in the 50's and you'll see that's about the time we turned around.

Just my thoughts and personal opinion of what I'm seeing in the market.

(and never forget that CASH is a position too).

UPDATE: All Currency Positions

Ok - So I thought I would update you on the 3 currency pair positions that I have on and when I got in and what I thought it would do at the time of entry. I'm looking to exit two of them and 1 is testing my patience.

USD/CAD: I was looking for a pull back off of resistance and it did that the day after my entry but today's action moved up just over my entry. I'm trying to be patient.

USD/JPY: I shorted this pair and it's pulled back a good bit today. I'll be looking to exit this one.

EUR/CHF: This is the first currency pair I shorted that we've been following. Obviously my favorite because it has made it's move that I was looking for. 1.58 (the dashed horizontal line) is a LONG, Long, long term support...like a monthly support line. I've tightened my stops and I'm looking to exit with good profit.

So Far, So Good

It's only been one day, but so far so good. It's dropped as I was looking for it to. I've thought about adding to the position but I don't want to blow up my account if it makes a sharp turn around. A daily chart is below and I got in on the day the "shooting star" candle formed.

USD/CAD Short?

Another Short possibility? I'm looking at a Weekly chart of the USD/CAD currency pair. The daily chart looks pretty bearish as well...but I'm short this pair and would love for the trend to continue.

Another Update

Above is the daily chart and below is a weekly chart for the EUR/CHF (which again is the Euro - Franc currency pair)...I shorted it a couple of weeks ago expected a pull back and it's gone as planned. I'm still in it and I'll be using the weekly chart to look for an exit. I've made money but I'm looking for more.